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BankNordik: The underlying business improves – Nordea

BankNordik: The underlying business improves – Nordea

The pre-announced Q1 results showed profit of DKK 45m before loan losses, ie DKK 6m (16%) ahead of our estimate and up 18% y/y. This was mainly driven by costs coming in at DKK 109m, DKK 8m (7%) below our estimate and down 9% y/y.

The cost initiatives launched in Q4 2019 have had a greater and faster impact than we expected. Fee income was 11% ahead of our estimate. We believe this was partially due to support from the repricing that was announced in Q4 2019, but also due to high activity in Q1 2020.

While the underlying business improved in Q1, the COVID-19 outbreak led to higher travel insurance claims, elevated loan losses, and a DKK 51m loss on the investment portfolio. We hence lower 2020E adjusted EPS by 34%, while we lift 2021E-22E adjusted EPS by 2-3%.

Our Gordon growth-based fair value range is DKK 104-127 (99-120). - Marketing material commissioned by BankNordik

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