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Finnair: Result heavily impacted by the pandemic - Evli Research

The coronavirus pandemic and strict travel restrictions especially in Finland continued to hamper Finnair’s result in Q3. Finnair’s Q3’20 adj. EBIT was EUR -167m vs. our expectation of EUR -191m and consensus of EUR -179m. Revenue decreased by 88.7% y/y and was EUR 97m vs. our expectation of EUR 157m and consensus of EUR 145m.

Q3 revenue was below expectations at EUR 97m vs. EUR 157m/145m Evli/cons.
ASK decreased by ~87% y/y in Q3. PLF was 38.7% (-47.5 points). Strict travel restrictions especially in Finland had a negative impact on Finnair’s flight plans.
Q3 adj. EBIT was EUR -167m vs. EUR -191m/-179m Evli/cons. Q3 comparable EBITDA was EUR -82m vs. EUR -103m our view.
Absolute costs in Q3: Fuel costs were EUR 29m vs. EUR 55m our view. Staff costs were EUR 57m vs. EUR 53m our view. All other OPEX+D&A combined were EUR 189m vs. EUR 250m our view.
Unit costs: CASK was 15.86 eurocents vs. 20.81 eurocents our view.
Q3 EPS was EUR -0.15 vs. EUR -0.12/-0.12 Evli/cons.
According to the company, comparable operating loss in Q4 will be of a similar magnitude as in Q2 and Q3.
The company expects that revenue and capacity (ASK) will both decrease more than 70% in 2020 compared to 2019.
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