Delayed ramp-up lowers '25e-'26e
While Q4 was more or less in line, the 2025 revenue guidance of DKK 150m-190m was lower than we expected. The reason is that Napatech now expects the ramp-up of IPU volumes to begin in 2026 vs. our expectation of H2'25. We therefore delay our peak volume forecast of 20k units from the large Tier 1 server OEM to '27e, while we assume a gradual ramp-up during '26e resulting in 12k units in '26e. This lowers our '25e and '26e revenue by 44% and 33%, to DKK 187m and DKK 505m. The company expects its traditional SmartNIC business to recover to normal levels in '25, which should enable it to reach the low-end of the range, while the high-end also includes some NRE's and trial orders.
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