We raise EBITA by 11% for ‘21/22e (organic growth +4%, margin assumptions +6% and M&A & FX +1%) and by 8% for ’22/23e-‘23/24e. We think that the demand was accelerating throughout Q1 and should stabilise at a high level. Addtech says that its orderbooks were at a very high level at the end of the quarter. We had assumed that Addtech could face inflationary pressures and experience lower margins during the pricing transfer period to customers in Q1’21/22e; however, Addtech reports that it has handled this very well, reducing our concerns. We previously expected SG&A to have ramped up during Q1, putting pressure on H2 margins. This has not been the case, and we push the ramp-up to late 2021, assuming that it should occur at a slower pace.
Significant headroom for more M&A
On our updated estimates, Addtech is valued 2% above peers (Indutrade, Lifco, Lagercrantz, Sdiptech) at 28x ‘22e EV/EBITA. It now has 7% M&A contribution for ‘21/22e, behind most peers (for example Lifco +12%, Lagercrantz +15%). However, we forecast ‘22/23e lease adj. ND/EBITDA of 0.5x, in other words, comfortable headroom for increasing EBITA up to 40% in ‘22/23e through M&A.
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