Our organic sales estimates are left mostly unchanged, as Q2 sales were only 1% below our expectations, although updated FX rates constitute a slight headwind. Moreover, the split between COGS and operating costs in the newly acquired Wood Communications was different from what we had thought, and as such we now raise our gross margin assumptions but partly offset this with higher opex. The net effect of this is that adj. EBITA comes up by 2% per annum for '24e-'26e.
7.4x '25e EV/EBITA; 8-11% '25e-'26e lease adj. FCF yield
The share is now trading at 7.4x '25e EV/EBITA while offering a lease adj. FCF yield of 8-11% for '25e-'26e. We see clear signs from both Alcadon and several fibre optics equipment providers that FTTH demand looks set to gradually improve from low levels. Therefore, we are becoming increasingly confident that organic growth should accelerate into '25e, in turn supporting margins as well, and we estimate an adj. EBITA CAGR of 17% for '24e-'26e.
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