Q4 expectations
We expect Alcadon to report Q4 sales of SEK 409m, up 2% (-1% organic, +3% FX). We expect to see demand continue to be mixed, with data centre sales being stronger while fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) remains soft. We note that if there is price pressure on certain FTTH-related products, Alcadon as a distributor should not be significantly impacted, and we expect a slight sequential gross margin improvement to 24.0% (from 23.8% in Q3). With opex similar to Q3, excluding the positive FX revaluation on earn-outs of SEK +5m, this results in an estimated EBITA of SEK 26.4m, -11% y-o-y, for a margin of 6.5% (7.4% in Q4'22, 6.0% in Q3'23). In Q3, Alcadon managed a major working capital release that notably decreased leverage, yet it still remains above 2021 levels, and with Q4 being a seasonally better quarter for cash flow we expect there could be room to release more.
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