Alligo: Sweden and Norway better, Finland weaker - ABG
* Sales in line, adj. EBITA +1% vs. FactSet consensus * Return to organic growth after 10 quarters, but Finland still struggles * Consensus EBITA likely unchanged, but need more detail on Finland
ANNONS
Q4 results
Sales grew 3% y-o-y (+1% org.) and were 2% above our estimate (in line with FactSet consensus), with Sweden the main driver of the first organic growth in 10 quarters. With a margin of 9.0%, 0.1pp above our estimate (in line with consensus), EBITA adj. was 3% above our estimate (1% above consensus), as Sweden and Norway improved, offsetting a declining profitability in Finland. EBITA included non-recurring items with a negative margin impact of 0.7pp. Cash flow was even better than expected. There is a conference call at 11:00 CET: webcast
Estimate changes
A new country manager was appointed in Finland to turn operations around. Also, the company is carrying out a structural review of Finland as two larger customer relationships are set to end. The weaker USD will have a sequentially positive impact on the gross margin from here. We expect consensus EBITA adj. to remain largely unchanged.
Company valuation
It is good to see a return to organic growth and the expected tailwind from the weaker USD, but we need more detail on the development in Finland, which we will hopefully get during the conference call, to draw further reaching conclusions. Over the past three months, the share has returned +6%, compared to the +5% of the OMX Stockholm Allshare. The share is currently trading at 15x-11x '25e-'27e P/E, compared to its 10-year historical median of 14x-9.4x.
