Beat on paper, but miss on pulp
ARP reported preliminary numbers: Group EBITDA of PLN 67m, which compares to ABGSCe of PLN 78m. Paper EBITDA came in at PLN 120m vs. ABGSCe PLN 108m, i.e miss on group EBITDA mostly driven by weak Rottneros numbers (Q4 published 01 Feb). Paper EBIT was PLN 97m, 12% above ABGSCe PLN 87m. Group EBIT came in at PLN 67m vs. ABGSCe of PLN 78m. EPS came in at PLN 0.69 vs our estimate of PLN 0.98.
We had the following bridge for Q4:We expected Q4 Paper EBIT of PLN 87m, up from PLN 77m in Q3'23. Lower paper prices likely offset by higher paper volumes. The main effects q-o-q were likely: PLN -3m from lower paper prices (UWF prices down 1% q-o-q, CWF -1%), PLN 10-15m from better volumes and PLN -2m from higher chemical costs. Pulp EBIT will likely be PLN 20-30m weaker q-o-q driven by lower pulp volumes and more maintenance. Hence, we expect Q4 group EBIT of PLN 78m vs. PLN 95m in Q3'23.
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