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Arise: Expect better Q3 from development/production - ABG

Q3 report due on Nov 10 at 8.00 CET
We expect Q3 EBITDA of SEK 73m
Fair value range of SEK 50-118 reiterated

We expect Q3 sales of SEK 129m, of which SEK 77m from Development and Solutions and SEK 52m from Production. The latter is supported by strong electricity prices, while the announced production has been somewhat weak at 58 GW vs. our previous forecast of 67 GW. However, the high prices will still help Production to a very strong performance. We forecast group EBITDA of SEK 73m, of which Development & Solutions at SEK 35m, mainly due to the sale of Ranasjö and Salsjöhöjden early in the quarter. We expect Production to reach EBITDA of SEK 39m. In addition, we believe the pipeline will still be around 2.6 GW at the end of the quarter and we think that the new CEO, Per-Erik Eriksson, will present a positive outlook, citing strong demand for onshore wind projects as well as good value creation from the owned production assets.

Arise has a strong project pipeline of 2.6 GW, of which 0.6 GW should come to financial close over the coming two years. At the same time, high electricity prices will support near-term earnings and cash flows. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 50-118 per share.
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