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Arise: Hedging lowers ’22e earnings risks - ABG

Q3’21 EBIT of SEK 61m vs. ABGSCe of SEK 56m
Hedging of electricity prices for Q4’21e and ‘22e
Maintain SEK 50-118 value range

Arise delivered a good Q3, helped by project sales and high electricity prices. Sales came in at SEK 117m, slightly below ABGSCe of SEK 129m. However, EBITDA was SEK 76m, above our SEK 73m forecast. The better EBITDA was due to strong performance in the Development & Solutions businesses, which combined for an EBITDA of SEK 51m, 47% above our forecast of SEK 35m. We had expected elevated costs to impact project margins, but it is clear that Arise has been successful in adjusting to the cost inflation. Production generated EBITDA of SEK 32m, below ABGSCe at SEK 39m. With production of 57 GWh already communicated, the realised price of SEK 749 per MWh was slightly disappointing compared to our expectation of SEK 897 per MWh.

We are impressed by the Q3 result and expect the company to continue to generate good earnings in Q4’21e, as well as in ’22e-‘23e. We maintain our fair value range of SEK 50-118 per share.
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