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Redeye updates its estimates and fair value range following Arise’s Q4 report. We consider the report solid and relatively undramatic, where the production segment managed to live up to our expectations with regard to realised electricity prices. With Arise’s Q3 figures fresh in mind, where price hedges negatively affected the average revenue per MWh, we argue this report should restore investors’ confidence given that day's negative share price reaction. Another key takeaway from the report was from Arise’s annual impairment test of its wind farms, where the value exceeded book value by SEK950m (twice the book value, totalling SEK43 per share). This has been a large part of our investment case in Arise, but we did not expect the figure to be this high. We incorporate higher electricity prices to reflect this and include the Persson Invest potential of 500MW into our project portfolio, resulting in an increased fair value range.
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