Volume guidance for 2024-25 in line with ABGSCe
Aros' Q2 report was lower than we estimated on sales, which filtered through to GP and EBIT. Underlying activity in the quarter was soft, as expected, but the most interesting takeaway is the guidance for starts in H2'23e and 2024-2025. For H2, management expects a continued weak residential market but still guides for a couple of smaller project starts with 15-25 units each. Banks now require a pre-sale ratio of ~50% for financing, but Aros also has the ability to start on "speculation" with its own balance sheet. For 2024, management guides for 700-800 started units (ABGSCe at 740), which is partly dependent on somewhat less hesitant consumer sentiment and/or an uptick in demand. For 2025, management states that starts should be higher than 2024 (ABGSCe at 870 units, +18% 2024e).
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