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Aspo: 2024 dry bulk sector pricing could improve - Nordea

2023 was a weak year for the dry bulk sector, reflected in ESL Shipping's clean EBIT declining by 50% y/y. Demand for steel, pulp and construction materials was not strong. Looking ahead, Q1 could still be seasonally weak, but the overall risk/reward balance in the dry bulk sector looks more positive for 2024. Record-low supply could support pricing in the sector for this year. We forecast group-level 2024 EBIT guidance at over EUR 30m (LSEG Data & Analytics consensus: EUR 31m). Our fair value range of EUR 7.3-8.9 per share is based on equal weightings of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.

2023 was a weak year for the dry bulk sector, reflected in ESL Shipping's clean EBIT declining by 50% y/y. Demand for steel, pulp and construction materials was not strong. Looking ahead, Q1 could still be seasonally weak, but the overall risk/reward balance in the dry bulk sector looks more positive for 2024. Record-low supply could support pricing in the sector for this year. We forecast group-level 2024 EBIT guidance at over EUR 30m (LSEG Data & Analytics consensus: EUR 31m). Our fair value range of EUR 7.3-8.9 per share is based on equal weightings of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
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