We cut estimates due to cautious market comments
Aspo’s H1 figures already reflected the pandemic shock yet Q3 remains challenging especially for ESL. We now expect ESL EBIT at EUR 0.4m and EUR 2.9m respectively for Q3 and Q4. In our view Aspo’s unofficial soft guidance for Telko FY ’20 (flat y/y absolute profitability i.e. some EUR 8m) seems a bit conservative given the EUR 6.6m accumulated already in H1. We expect Telko Q3 EBIT at EUR 2.3m. We cut our H2 EBIT estimate all in all by EUR 4.0m to EUR 7.2m, reflecting Aspo’s cautious comments.
Strong rebound remains a possibility yet not imminent
It’s clear this year will be quite soft figurewise with ESL only beginning to rebound in Q4. There’s thus clear upside relative to long-term estimates, yet in our view given the prolonged pandemic uncertainty it takes a lot of conviction to rely on that outlook. In terms of SOTP there’s potential with respect to the ’19 and ’20 average, however that approach relies on Telko’s FY ’20 improvement. Our TP remains EUR 6, rating HOLD
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