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A strong shipping market could have led Aspo to post a record year of earnings in 2022, but the Ukraine crisis changed the investment story. Around 26% of annual net sales are from Russia, Ukraine and other CIS countries. The most recent guidance indicates EUR 27-34m clean EBIT for 2022, which is not bad considering the current market environment, but valuation multiples could remain modest as long as Aspo maintains business in Russia. It has invested a lot in the country and a total exit could be a painful decision. After downgrading our estimates, we calculate a fair value range of EUR 9.9-12.2 (11.6-14.3) per share, equally weighting our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
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