Given the timing of the positive profit warning, we believe the company has been successful in its pricing towards retail channel, while foodservice channel appears to be holding well despite lower disposable income among consumers. We note that meat producer prices have stabilized in Finland, and given lower grain prices, lower meat raw material prices are plausible going forward. In Europe (impacting Sweden meat raw material costs), have started to decline, although from elevated level.
We note that tight competitive environment in Denmark, and negative FX impact in Sweden are likely to continue in H2. We expect consensus to make slightly positive adjusted EBIT revisions for 2023E-25E, while positive profit warning clearly lowers risk related to Atria’s ability to maintain achieved price levels towards retail channel. We continue to believe that the company is able to maintain its volumes relatively stable. We have a fair value range of EUR 12.3-15.0 per Atria share.
