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Atria ended a volatile 2022 with a strong Q4 that came in well above our expectations on adjusted EBIT. The strong performance in Finland continued, as the company successfully hiked sales prices and improved efficiency. Atria expects cost inflation to continue in 2023 and says that the ramp-ups of new investments in Finland and Sweden will pressure profitability. It expects 2023 adjusted EBIT to decline from the 2022 level, but we believe guidance incorporates high uncertainty related to factory ramp-up costs. Hence, we see 2023 adjusted EBIT on a par with 2022. We derive a DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 12.4-15.1 (12.2-14.9) per share. Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
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