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Atria reported a strong Q3 with EBIT of EUR 19.7m beating Refinitiv consensus by 16%. On an organic basis, sales were up 4% y/y, with solid retail sales and improving fast food and foodservice sales after easing of restrictions. Investments in Finland and Sweden are proceeding according to plan. Atria raised its 2021 guidance on 18 October and expects EUR 47-54m in adjusted EBIT in 2021, while we are more concerned about the outlook for 2022. General cost inflation started to mount in September and we expect the main impact to materialise in H1 2022. Given the lag between cost and price increases, we expect 2022 to be heavily back-end loaded with a difficult H1. The company will arrange a CMD event on 25 November. We derive a fair value range of EUR 12.6-15.5 per share. Marketing material commissioned by Atria.
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