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Atvexa: Perceived political risk - DNB

Q4 was mixed, with a strong top line, but weaker profit margins, likely due to normal quarterly volatility, as the full year again matched company targets. With four bolt-on acquisitions already in 2021/22, the educational roll-up case is going to plan. We expect more to come, given Atvexa’s asset-light business model with strong FCF generation. We have only tweaked our forecasts, and still judge the perceived political risk to be greater than the actual risk, but lower stock valuations have widened our fair value range to SEK62–110/share (78–106).

Q4 was mixed, with a strong top line, but weaker profit margins, likely due to normal quarterly volatility, as the full year again matched company targets. With four bolt-on acquisitions already in 2021/22, the educational roll-up case is going to plan. We expect more to come, given Atvexa’s asset-light business model with strong FCF generation. We have only tweaked our forecasts, and still judge the perceived political risk to be greater than the actual risk, but lower stock valuations have widened our fair value range to SEK62–110/share (78–106).
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