B3 Consulting Group: Early signs of recovery emerging - ABG
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B3 Consulting Group: Early signs of recovery emerging - ABG

* A minor miss compared to FactSet consensus expectations * Small signs of improvement, with a flattening utilisation rate y-o-y * Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of ~9x Market remains challenging, but shows some improvement Q3 missed slightly on sales (-5% vs. ABGSCe) and adj. EBITA (-7% vs. ABGSCe). Organically, sales declined ~14%, affected by a weaker market in Sweden, where project activity remained limited. However, sales saw an increase of 4% y-o-y, mainly due to M&A contributions from Poland and Habberstad. Adj. EBITA came in at SEK 7m, for a margin of 3%, driven by lower overhead costs in Sweden. Martin Stenström will step down as CEO and Daniel Juhlin, a current board member at B3 and CEO of Order Impact, will take over the CEO position on 1 February. Cut estimates by 4-1% adj. EBITA for '26e-'27e On the back of the report, we cut adj. EBITA by 4-1% for '26e-'27e, as the market still faces price pressure and remains challenging overall. However, we note some early positive signs: 1) utilisation has improved slightly, and 2) discussions about rate increases are now possible. We expect B3 to return to positive net recruitment, and see utilisation normalising in H1'26e. The company continues to adjust its cost base and operational model to become more efficient, and we retain our positive view of B3 despite the soft earnings profile. Valuation Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~9x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~15-20% below current peer multiples and over 20% below the historical average for Nordic IT services peers. We continue to see B3 as well-positioned for '26e-'27e, supported by stabilising market conditions.

* A minor miss compared to FactSet consensus expectations * Small signs of improvement, with a flattening utilisation rate y-o-y * Trading at NTM EV/EBITA of ~9x Market remains challenging, but shows some improvement Q3 missed slightly on sales (-5% vs. ABGSCe) and adj. EBITA (-7% vs. ABGSCe). Organically, sales declined ~14%, affected by a weaker market in Sweden, where project activity remained limited. However, sales saw an increase of 4% y-o-y, mainly due to M&A contributions from Poland and Habberstad. Adj. EBITA came in at SEK 7m, for a margin of 3%, driven by lower overhead costs in Sweden. Martin Stenström will step down as CEO and Daniel Juhlin, a current board member at B3 and CEO of Order Impact, will take over the CEO position on 1 February. Cut estimates by 4-1% adj. EBITA for '26e-'27e On the back of the report, we cut adj. EBITA by 4-1% for '26e-'27e, as the market still faces price pressure and remains challenging overall. However, we note some early positive signs: 1) utilisation has improved slightly, and 2) discussions about rate increases are now possible. We expect B3 to return to positive net recruitment, and see utilisation normalising in H1'26e. The company continues to adjust its cost base and operational model to become more efficient, and we retain our positive view of B3 despite the soft earnings profile. Valuation Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at ~9x NTM EV/EBITA, which is ~15-20% below current peer multiples and over 20% below the historical average for Nordic IT services peers. We continue to see B3 as well-positioned for '26e-'27e, supported by stabilising market conditions.
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