Given the soft orders in Q2 2020 and our lower order intake forecasts for H2 2020, we lower our 2021 sales estimates by 4%. We continue to argue that the long-term case in Balco remains intact with solid underlying demand. We expect orders to return to normal once COVID-19 related restrictions are lifted but see some short-term challenges with restrictions weighing on operations longer than first expected. In addition, we find Balco’s recent announcement of starting to provide façade renovations in conjunction with its balcony renovations as an interesting opening, but we do not yet factor in any additional sales from this announcement.
Fair valuation range marginally adjusted
Following the minor estimate changes, we have revised our DCF-based fair valuation range to SEK 99-121, with a mid-point of SEK 109. The mid-point valuation implies 2022E EV/EBIT of 11.5x.