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BankNordik: First EO distribution will likely come as DPS - ABG

Q2 to show strong improvements in PBLL y-o-y
We now expect EO DPS of DKK 47 alongside Q2
Trading at a 22e P/E of 9.5x and 6.2x adj. for ’21e DPS

We expect Q2’21 profit before loan losses of DKK 46m. This is up DKK 10m y-o-y due to commissions rising to DKK 17m (DKK 13m in Q2’20) and insurance income up to DKK 15m (DKK 12m Q2’20), while we expect costs 3% down y-o-y. We expect loan losses of about zero in Q2’21 with limited negative COVID-19 effects on the Faroe Islands and Greenland. We expect NII up to DKK 65m in Q2 (DKK 64m Q1) helped by lending growth of 1% q-o-q. We expect BankNordik to pocket an added gain of DKK 10m in Q2 for divesting the Danish branches (DKK 77m in Q1) although we see this countered by a DKK 15m EO loss from compensation paid to Faroe customers for the company’s non-compliance with investment profiles for certain products. We expect CET1 down 30bp q-o-q to 30.7% and 6.5% down to 24.5% if adjusted for the EO DPS of DKK 47 which we expect to be announced around Q2.

We lower 23e adj. EPS by 36%, driven by lower buybacks raising ’21e DPS to DKK 57.6 of which DKK 47 is the EO DPS we expect announced on Q2. With the lower buybacks, BankNordik is trading at a 2022e adj. P/E of 9.5x but just 6.2x with the price adjusted for the high 2021 DPS.
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