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BankNordik: Strategic initiatives are starting to pay off - Nordea

The Q4 2020 results are more proof that the strategic initiatives BankNordik has taken over past 12-18 months are working. Total income was ~7% ahead of our estimate and grew ~2% y/y, while costs were ~6% lower than our estimate and down ~7% y/y. BankNordik expects to pay extraordinary dividends of DKK 450m in 2021 and DKK 125m in both 2022 and 2023, following the divestment of its Danish business. This corresponds to DKK 73 per share. BankNordik expects 2021 net profit of DKK 150-200m. As expected, this looks a bit cautious to us, and we estimate 2021 net profit of DKK 200m. We lift 2021E-22E adjusted EPS by 1-5%. Our new Gordon growth-based fair value range is DKK 186-212 (208-234), as we had previously estimated slightly higher and quicker shareholder distribution on the back of the divestment of the Danish activities.

The Q4 2020 results are more proof that the strategic initiatives BankNordik has taken over past 12-18 months are working. Total income was ~7% ahead of our estimate and grew ~2% y/y, while costs were ~6% lower than our estimate and down ~7% y/y. BankNordik expects to pay extraordinary dividends of DKK 450m in 2021 and DKK 125m in both 2022 and 2023, following the divestment of its Danish business. This corresponds to DKK 73 per share. BankNordik expects 2021 net profit of DKK 150-200m. As expected, this looks a bit cautious to us, and we estimate 2021 net profit of DKK 200m. We lift 2021E-22E adjusted EPS by 1-5%. Our new Gordon growth-based fair value range is DKK 186-212 (208-234), as we had previously estimated slightly higher and quicker shareholder distribution on the back of the divestment of the Danish activities.
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