Following the divestment of its Swedish sawmills, Bergs is now a more downstream-focused company with less cyclicality in its earnings and exposure to structurally growing end-markets (building with wood is more environmentally friendly). Its remaining assets are modern and well-invested, so cash flow generation will be strong. We see plenty of room to grow, both organically and inorganically. Bergs Timber targets annual growth of 10% (both organically and via M&A) and EBITDA margins of 9%. We expect Bergs to achieve higher and more stable group margins as value-added wood products makes up a larger share of its earnings.
Strong price momentum in ’21, but price adjustments likely
Bergs product prices have seen strong price momentum the last year: sawn wood prices increased 140% and wood protection prices followed. EBITDA margins improved from 10% in Q3’20 to 22% in Q3’21. Key sawn goods indicators have shown weakness lately (but note that the
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