We raise our 2021-23 sales estimates by 3% and EBITA by 4-12% post the Q2 beat, although we are careful not to extrapolate the margin beat too much. We argue that the almost pure virtual delivery is low cost and that a normalisation to a mix of physical and virtual deliveries should increase operating costs. BTS raised its 2021 guidance on EBITA to be “better than 2019” vs the previous “in line with 2019” and we estimate an 11% increase this year with upside potential to estimates in our view.
We find it encouraging that BTS is exiting the pandemic in a stronger position and that it has already reached a higher EBITA level than it achieved in 2019, which bodes well for continued earnings growth. The share trades on our new estimates at 25.4x 2022e EV/EBITA and we estimate a 9% EBITA CAGR, with the base year 2019, up until 2023.
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