BTS provides FY guidance that is either "the same", "better than" or "significantly better than" the previous year's adj. EBITA. We estimate a 7% adj. EBITA growth in 2023e vs 2022, which corresponds to an outlook of "2023 earnings to be better than 2022". Based on how the global economy and the corporate spending on management consulting and transformation projects develops, we find it relatively likely that BTS would like to leave the option to upgrade its guidance during 2023, as it has done several times before.
17% adj. EBITA CAGR at 16.7x 2023e
The need for large global corporates to change drives demand for BTS' consulting services. We argue that this is clearly what is happening in the world today, which is supportive for growth. On the other hand, short-term spending cuts in conjunction with lay-offs can cause project halts and postponed revenues, but BTS has always had a long-term focus and we foresee a bright future. The share trades at 16.7x EV/EBITA 2023e.
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