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Capman: Ramping up recurring revenue - Evli Research

Slightly below expectations, AUM at all-time high

CapMan’s Q3 results came in slightly below expectations, with turnover of EUR 8.9m (EUR 9.6m/9.9m Evli/cons.) and EBIT of EUR 4.5m (EUR 5.0m Evli/cons.). The report in our view was all in all rather neutral. Low transaction-based fee volumes still caused weakness in the Services business while the Management Company business saw a boost from recent fundraising projects, albeit not quite as much as we had anticipated. AUM grew to an all-time high mainly through the first closing of the NRE III fund, having raised EUR 313m, with the target of EUR 500m still seen to be reached in the not too distant future. No major carried interest was received, and fair value changes were as expected.

Outlook for fee-based growth still favourable

CapMan’s recurring turnover continued to grow but at a slower pace. With the newly raised funds and on-going fundraising as well as the overall relatively new AUM the outlook for accelerating growth again is promising. The new CapMan Wealth Services model was also launched recently, aiming to further boost fee-based growth. The clear weakness currently continues to be the transaction-based fees, where volumes have declined due to the pandemic and with the recent increased uncertainty the near-term continues to look challenging. Realization of carried interest is still looking more distant and we no longer expect significant carry in 2020.

BUY with a target price of EUR 2.2

The market uncertainty is causing some stir to the near-term development and justifying upside potential in relation to current valuation seems more challenging, but the dividend yield and healthy financial position continue to speak for CapMan. We retain our BUY-rating and target price of EUR 2.2.
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