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Catella: Harvesting season is on the horizon - ABG

PIM continues to shine, main driver behind the strong Q3
Appealing earnings scenario for 2022 and 2023
EV/EBIT of 8x on 2022e

Catella reported a strong Q3’21 driven by the performance within Property Investment Management (PIM), where the segment showed strong margin performance in the third quarter. The AUM was flat however q-o-q, driven by the termination of two low-margin AUM accounts, and a divested mandate in the UK. The Corporate Finance segment posted a weaker quarter, but that was not surprising given the seasonality in the business and we expect a much stronger Q4’21. Lastly, Principal Investments, had only a minor impact on Q3’21 earnings as the harvesting period for the segment is not expected until 2022-2023.

2021 has been heavily burdened by the wind-down of IPM, but that is now in the past. The shareholders of Catella should expect the group to deliver much stronger EBIT results in the coming years, driven both by the growth engine of PIM, but also from Principal Investments, which can, in our opinion, be seen as a new major growth platform for Catella. The company is entering a sort of harvesting phase over the next 1.5 years, which we expect will drive strong earnings growth. Applying our latest revisions, the valuation remains intriguing, with Catella trading on a 2022 EV/EBIT of 8x on ABGSC estimates, which is more than 50% below our broader peer group.
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