Catella: Q3 miss, but restructuring offers some relief - ABG
* Q3 EBIT of SEK -16m, vs. ABGSC of SEK 20m and cons. SEK 26m * AUM of SEK 162bn in line with cons, while transaction activity continues to improve * Negative consensus revisions to follow
ANNONS
Q3 reported EBIT SEK -16m, vs. ABGSC at 20m & consensus at 26m
The Q3'26 reported EBIT came in at SEK -16m, SEK 36m below ABGSC and SEK 42m below FactSet consensus. The miss was driven by weaker-than-expected earnings in Investment Management, including BSI, partly reflecting negative fair value adjustments and restructuring costs, while Corporate Finance was slightly ahead.
AUM of SEK 162.2bn in line with cons, despite continued net outflows
Net sales in Q3 came in at SEK 351m (378m), which was 1% above ABGSC's forecast and 9% above consensus. Reported EBITDA came in at SEK 2m, 39m below ABGSC and 51m below FactSet consensus. The AUM came in at SEK 162.2bn, up 1.4bn q-o-q (SEK 160.8bn), which was in line with consensus forecast. The increase of 1.4bn sequentially is driven by FX tailwinds (3.5bn), with a net outflow for the third consecutive quarter in a row.
Negative cons. revisions to follow
We expect negative consensus revisions to '26e EBIT following the Q3 earnings miss, while the impact on '27-28e estimates should be partly offset by the announced SEK 40m in annual cost savings from 2027. These measures entail SEK 30m in one-off restructuring costs in 2026. Call at 10.00 CET.
