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CDON Q4: Big miss on 3P GMV growth versus estimates - SEB

Most importantly, CDON reported 3P GMV growth of only 6% y/y in Q4. While this implies market share gains, as the overall e-commerce market recorded declining growth in the same period, we are contemplating downgrading our 3P growth assumptions on back of a lower base going into 2022. Clearly, 3P GMV growth is a key driver of earnings, as well as equity valuation, in the online marketplace investment case. For now, we reiterate our SEK 600 mid-point equity value per share.

Most importantly, CDON reported 3P GMV growth of only 6% y/y in Q4. While this implies market share gains, as the overall e-commerce market recorded declining growth in the same period, we are contemplating downgrading our 3P growth assumptions on back of a lower base going into 2022. Clearly, 3P GMV growth is a key driver of earnings, as well as equity valuation, in the online marketplace investment case. For now, we reiterate our SEK 600 mid-point equity value per share.
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