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Christian Berner: Sequential improvements expected - ABG

Q3 report due Thursday, 21 October
Estimates and fair value range intact
10x ‘22e EV/EBITA, 21% ’20-‘23e EBITA CAGR

We expect sales of SEK 179m, +11% y-o-y (4% organic, 7% M&A, 0% FX). Low order intake during Q2’20-Q1’21 weighed on organic growth in H1’21, but the impressive 49% y-o-y order intake expansion seen during Q2’21 should support organic growth of 4% in Q3’21e. Additionally, the acquisition of GF Swedenborg in Q2’21 should add 7% to sales. We estimate EBITA of SEK 10m for a margin of 5.8% (8.8%), up 1.5p.p q-o-q and +0.5p.p when adjusted for acquisition-related costs of SEK 1.8m in Q2’21. We expect the negative effect from limited on-site work due to COVID-19 to have diminished during the quarter, which explains the q-o-q margin uptick. That said, we expect to see a negative impact from extended delivery times, particularly in larger projects, due to reduced raw material availability; we also expect component and cost inflation. These factors explain the y-o-y decrease in margins, in our view.

CBTT is trading at 10x ‘22e EV/EBITA while offering lease adj. FCF yield of 10-12% ’22-23e. We estimate ‘21e NIB/EBITDA of 2.4x and 21’e cash/sales of 14%. As such, we consider CBTT to have an excess of cash that could be used for further acquisitions in the short term, adding to our estimates. Finally, we reiterate our valuation range of SEK 28-48.
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