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Christian Berner Tech Trade: New reporting segments from Q4'22 - ABG

Q4 report due on Thursday, 23 February
Updated outlook following recent change of analyst
Trading at 12x '23e P/E, fair value range SEK 20-30 (19-28)


Q4e: expect some seasonal weakness compared to Q3

For Q4e we expect sales of SEK 198m, up 2% y-o-y, supported by the strong order book coming out of Q3. We estimate adjusted EBITA of SEK 7m (-5m) and adjusted net income of SEK 4m (-5m), for margins of 3.8% and 2.2% respectively. The company's results have historically been quite volatile, but in the previous two years margins have dropped between Q3 and Q4 due to higher opex in Q4, and therefore we estimate a similar drop in 2022e. In December the company announced that it will be implementing new reporting segments starting in the Q4 report, and thus we do not provide segment estimates. The first new segment will comprise the four Christian Berner subsidiaries (AB, Oy, AS, A/S) as well as Empakk, while the second will consist of Zander & Ingeström, Swedenborg and Bullerbekämparen.
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