Christian Berner Tech Trade: Orders coming in, but it’s hard to deliver

Christian Berner Tech Trade: Orders coming in, but it’s hard to deliver - ABG

Q4 report due Thursday 24 February Strong order intake to continue in Q4… …but we expect softer sales and adj. EBITA

Starting 2022 with a strong order book We expect the strong market demand to persist in Q4, translating to a third consecutive quarter with order intake growing by 10% y-o-y, to SEK 181m. We estimate sales to be on the softer side at SEK 208m, however, up 7% y-o-y (0% organic, 0% FX and 7% M&A). The soft ending to FY’21 is explained by: 1) delayed orders, primarily in the Materials Technology segment but also to some extent in the Process & Environment segment, due to component shortages; to our understanding, no orders have been cancelled, but only delayed to FY’22, and 2) Zander & Ingeström undertaking several heating assignments for its partner in China during Q3, something that normally occurs in Q4. Besides shifting volumes from Q4 to Q3, these assignments are highly profitable due to them being of leasing-nature, resulting in high drop through and thereby supporting the margin in Q3’21. Consequently, with the lack of these deliveries in Q4’21, but included in the comparable period, we see the margin to be on the softer side. We estimate an adj. EBITA of SEK 11m, corresponding to an adj. EBITA margin of 5.1% (4.9%), down 4.5pp q-o-q. Additionally, we expect NRI of SEK ~1.5m, relating to several management changes. ’21 estimates down on delayed orders We lower our ’21e sales and adj. EBITA estimates by 2% and 6%, respectively, due to us expecting some orders to be delayed and pushed into ’22e. Looking ahead, with solid order intake in Q2-Q4’21 and easy comps, we estimate ’22 to be relatively strong in terms of organic growth (8%). We also anticipate a recovery in margins, up from 6.3% in ’21e to 8.5% in ’22e. All in all, we forecast ’21e-’23e sales and adj. EBITA CAGRs of 8% and 26%, respectively, without including any further M&A in our estimates. 10x ’22e EV/EBITA, ~27% below core peers On our estimates, CBTT trades at 10x ’22e EV/EBITA, 27% be ... Läs mer på Introduce

Christian Berner Tech Trade: Orders coming in, but it’s hard to deliver - ABG

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