Cibus: Dividend unchanged at EUR 0.90 and earnings capacity suggests dividend could be sustained - Nordea

Cibus posted Q4 net operating income of EUR 30.1m, up 6% y/y and in line with Infront consensus. Income from property management (IFPM) excluding one-offs was EUR 12.4m, flat y/y and 10% below our estimate, and 7% below consensus. The reported IFPM was EUR 11.8m. Reported IFPM included EUR -0.6m of one-off items. The dividend proposal is EUR 0.90, same as consensus and unchanged y/y. Fair value changes were EUR -31.2m (-1.7% of portfolio) as average valuation yield expanded 0.21 pp and was 6.4% (6.2% in Q3). Earnings capacity-based IFPM per share was slightly up q/q at EUR 0.95 from EUR 0.93 owing to higher rental income. Net financial expenses in earnings capacity is EUR 51.5m versus EUR 51.1m in Q3. EPRA NRV was EUR 12.5 (SEK 140), down from EUR 13.0 in Q3. Cibus is currently trading at a ~20% discount to EPRA NRV and an implied yield of 7.0% versus the average valuation yield of 6.4%. Cibus has effectively capped interest rates until H1 2025 and the average interest rate was 4.5% at the end of 2023. We expect a slightly negative share price reaction on the IFPM miss and relatively large negative fair value changes. However, the sustainable 9% dividend yield should offer support.