The recent completion of the acquisition of the German assets, with an option to increase Cindrigo’s ownership with 5% from 85% to 90% in 2026, with 80MW capacity in the initial phase and a total potential exceeding 300MW, position Cindrigo to capitalise on Europe’s high energy prices, decarbonisation requirements, and focus on energy security. Factoring in a EUR 20m EBITDA contribution from Lithium production by 2030, we see potential for a group EBITDA of EUR 100m (GBP 85m) that year.
With initial cash flows and financing effectively lowering risk, we have adjusted the WACC to 8.1% (previously 9%) and now find support for a fair value of GBP 2.21–2.27 per share on a 12 month horizon, although some discount is motivated during the scale-up on Finland. Applying a peer-level 15x EBITDA multiple to our 2030 forecast (adjusting for the EUR 19m government subsidy and minorities) suggests an upside potential to a market capitalization of around GBP 900m, equivalent to GBP 2.6–2.8 per share. In a longer perspective, to 2034, we find that the further growth and profitability measures support a share price in the GBP 5-10 per share range.
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