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Redeye raised its asset management assumptions following the strong report with CoinShares Physical surprising on the upside. CoinShares is valued at 2.0x Redeye’s 2025e EV/EBIT while holding a 40% market share in European crypto ETPs and capturing 20% of the net flows in the quarter. The current valuation is close to CoinShares' liquidation value (defined as net current assets), and Redeye argues that CoinShares offers a good risk/reward. With the updated accounting policy, Redeye expects CoinShares to screen better within one year, and the US election offers a good upside on a Trump victory. Concurrently, a Harris victory would continue the status quo. Redeye makes minor adjustments to its Bear Case while leaving its Base Case intact.
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