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Consti: Focus on demand situation - Evli Research

Profitability expected to remain at healthy levels

Consti’s profitability and cash flow in Q2 were solid and the order backlog continued to improve q/q despite the pandemic impacting on the demand situation. The housing company demand in particular has been affected due to delays in decision making. The situation does not appear to have changed significantly for the better or the worse compared with expectations in Q2. We expect net sales to amount to EUR 69.6m, down 14.9% due to the stricter bidding procedures and as such the lower activity level. We expect similar relative profitability as in Q2, with an EBIT-margin of 3.6%.

Our attention directed towards demand situation comments

Consti expects its 2020 operating result to improve compared with 2019, which on our estimates should be achieved in Q3. After the profitability challenges during previous years and the now clearly stabilized profitability the focus of our interest is shifting towards net sales development. The near-term uncertainty brought by the demand situation is in our view currently the most pressing matter. Most of the demand, however, has not disappeared but instead seen delays or postponements, which remains a beneficial factor going forward.

BUY with a target price of EUR 10.0

We have not made changes to our estimates ahead of Q3. We retain our target price of EUR 10.0, valuing Consti at ~11x 2020 EV/EBIT, still clearly below peers. Arbitration proceedings for the St. George -project are still on-going and remain a risk, with the final arbitral award to be given by June 11th, 2021. Our rating remains BUY.

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