Q1 marked an important milestone for Copperstone, as the company submitted its environmental permit application for the Viscaria project. The ~4,000-page document was handed in to the Land and Environmental Court in March, in accordance with the company’s communicated timeline for submission, and Copperstone expects that the permit will be approved by mid-2023. Also, two directed rights issues of SEK 147.9m and 80.9m were completed during the quarter. Exact transaction costs were not disclosed, but we estimate these to amount to a combined SEK 3m.
Long-term Viscaria estimates unchanged
The only change made to our estimates is from adding our expected rights issue-related costs of SEK 3m. These are added as NRIs and do not affect adj. EBIT. Our long-term estimates for the Viscaria mine remain unchanged, where we estimate ~SEK 2.5bn in revenues and ~SEK 1.0bn in EBIT once Viscaria reaches its full run-rate. We have estimated, somewhat conservatively, that the first revenues from Viscaria will come in H1’24 (company expects H2’23), and we estimate ’24e sales and EBIT of SEK 592m and SEK 190m, respectively. While there are still several hurdles to clear before mining operations can begin, such as getting the permit approved and securing financing, the submission of the permit application on time was a step in the right direction that we argue slightly de-risks our Viscaria estimates.
The timeline ahead
Now the permit application needs to move through the Swedish Land and Environmental Court’s process and, if needed, the following appeal courts. The company expects an approval in mid-2023, but in the event of appeals or further required completion of the application, there is a risk of delays. As mentioned above, we have taken a slightly more conservative view on the timeline compared to company ...
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