CTT’s Q2 report marked an improvement from the Q1’21 trough. However, near-term OEM uncertainty resulted in CTT expecting a flat sales development in Q3’21 and FY’21 sales of SEK 140-160m (implying lower OEM sales in H2’21 vs. H2’20). Consequently, we lower our sales estimate by 12% (EBIT -19%) for FY’21e, primarily due to lower OEM sales. For FY’22e-‘23e, we lower EBIT by 4-1% as lower OEM sales are offset by higher VIP and aftermarket sales.
Near-term developments show improving air traffic data
We note that commercial air traffic has continued to improve lately, and is now ~10% below the levels seen in January 2020. In addition, the US domestic market has been one of the fastest to recover, with the ‘big 4’ (American, Delta, Southwest, United) all guiding for a continued sequential improvement in capacity in Q3’21.
