Strong Aftermarket, declining System Sales
CTT delivered continued growth both y-o-y and q-o-q in Q4, as sales reached SEK 81m (-2% vs. ABGSCe 82m), of which 21% was organic (ABGSCe 18%). System sales declined 6% y-o-y (ABGSCe +41%), while aftermarket sales remained strong and grew 26% (ABGSCe +17%). EBIT grew 52% y-o-y (+5% vs. ABGSCe 30m) and reached a margin of 39% (ABGSCe 36%, 31% Q4'22), mainly due to a higher share of aftermarket revenues. For Q1'24, the CEO guides for sales of SEK 80-85m, with the mid-point implying 10% growth y-o-y, and flat growth q-o-q, where we would have expected continued sequential growth due to ramp-up in OEM and VIP sales. The 2023 dividend was announced to be SEK 5.35 (ABGSCe 5.3), plus an extraordinary dividend of SEK 3.35, yielding a total DPS of SEK 8.7, ~115% of EPS and ~3% of mcap. Free cash flow was also strong at ~90% of EBIT. Looking ahead, the CEO flags that margins are expected to contract due to a higher share of system sales and less supportive FX (as expected), but expects 2024 to see significantly higher OEM deliveries (ABGSCe +180% org.) due to ramp-up in production and more normalised aftermarket growth (ABGSCe +10% org.) while being "cautiously optimistic" on Private Jets.
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