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Digia: Q3 20 report on 28 October - Danske Bank

Conclusion
Good Q3 likely, supportive comments from peers. Digia's Q2 report was strong, driven by relatively resilient sales and higher margins, thanks to the COVID-related savings from travel etc. In Q3, we expect a bit more pressure on revenues from delayed start of consulting projects, but no dramatic change to the worse. The "COVID-savings" should have continued. The read-across from peers is positive, with TietoEVRY restoring guidance yesterday (pro forma adj. EBIT to grow in 2020) and Gofore reporting acceleration in organic growth towards end of quarter. We met with Gofore on Monday and got the impression that demand especially in the public sector (up to 30% of Digia's sales) is good, and also in the private sector there is no broad-based weakening, rather individual customers postponing projects.

Our estimates vs. consensus. We have not changed our estimates after the Q2 report. Our Q3 EBIT is flat y/y, which could be on the conservative side, and somewhat below FactSet consensus. Digia has two distinct businesses, Services consisting of longer term contracts (>60% of revenue) and shorter consulting Projects. The negative impacts from COVID-19 are mainly seen in the latter.

Valuation and view on the shares. Digia's outlook appears better than we thought at the time of Q2 report in early August. In our view, Digia's attraction among peers is stability and predictability, thanks to high share of stable maintenance/monitoring contracts (>60% of revenues). The company has been able to show healthy organic growth, which we expect to continue, backed by positive demand trends for services offered by Digia. Bolt-on M&A is likely given net debt / EBITDA of <1x (2020E), which could speed up growth beyond our estimates. The share has performed well (+67% YTD), but this has been driven by good earnings performance. Digia now trades close to peers' median on our 2021E estimates.
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