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Dist IT: Well-prepared to deliver a strong Q4 - ABG

Q3 GM impacted by product mix & shipping costs
Inventory and pricing in place to deliver a strong Q4
36% EBIT CAGR ’20-’23e at ’22e adj. EV/EBIT of 12x

Sales were in line with our expectations, but margins were worse than expected. The gross margin decreased to 20.6% (ABGSCe 21.7%) from 21.1% last year, primarily due to rapidly increasing logistics costs and a less favourable product mix. Sales of the high-margin own brands (EMV) disappointed, growing by just 8% y-o-y (we expected 20%). Furthermore, the geographical expansion of EMV weighs on margins, as DistIT has to share the profits with the out-of-Nordics distributors when selling in its new markets. EBIT was SEK 7.3m, but was weighed down by a non-recurring cost of SEK 11.9m related to the acquisition of EFUEL. All in all, adj. EBIT came in 13% lower than we expected, but due to temporary factors that should subside.

On our estimates, the share is trading on EV/EBIT ’22e of 12x, ~12% above its 5Y historical average, but now with a higher growth rate than historically at 36% EBIT CAGR ’20-’23e. This is largely driven by EFUEL, which management expects to grow 70-100% per year while delivering a >10% EBIT margin. We expect a slightly lower growth rate of 50%, but still see it contributing SEK 300m in sales already in 2023e.
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