Donkey Republic: Wet wheels won't stop the roll - ABG
* Small Q1e: +10% revenue growth, EBITDA of DKK -3.2m * German roll-outs on track; we remain in upper end of guidance * +20% revenue CAGR and hefty margin uplift; FVR of DKK 7-10
ANNONS
We see +10% growth in Q1 despite weather drag
Donkey Republic ("DONKEY") is due to report Q1 earnings late in April (exact date not disclosed). We forecast revenues of DKK 28.9m in the seasonally small Q1, for +10% growth y-o-y, driven by flattish revenue/bike (DKK 407) and a fleet size of 23.7k bikes. Q1 precipitation and temperatures in certain key markets should be a drag on revenue/bike, likely offsetting underlying improvements. Note roll-outs in Germany will not impact Q1, but we expect revenue/bike to decline slightly from Q2e onwards. We forecast Q1 EBITDA of DKK -3.2m, a strong improvement from the DKK -6.3m in Q1'25, with recent layoffs gradually visible.
Roll-outs appear on track; we remain in upper end of guidance
We sense roll-outs in Düsseldorf and the Ruhr Region are tracking well, so we continue to expect FY'26 figures in the upper end of guidance, forecasting revenues of DKK 192m (guidance DKK 179m-194m) and EBIT of DKK 7.4m (guidance DKK 1m-9m).
+20% revenue CAGR and hefty margin uplift; FVR of DKK 7-10
Europe's bike-sharing fleet, part of the broader shared micromobility market, is projected to grow at +15% CAGR until '30e, and we see DONKEY's competitive edge centred around its high-quality fleet (especially after roll-out of its Gen4 bike), its lower prices (price/cost is 50% of scoring in EU tenders), and stronger relations with the cities it serves, coupled with solid positions in the Tier 2 and Tier 3 segments. Considering market tailwinds and DONKEY's pipeline and commercial momentum, including two recent large-scale wins in Germany, we forecast a revenue CAGR of +20% in '25-'28e (vs. +35% in '18-'25). With improving operating leverage, we model adj. EBITDA increasing from DKK 30m in '25 to DKK 84m in '28e and adj. EBIT reaching DKK 39m. We set a fair value range of DKK 7-10/share.
