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Eastnine: Clearly on the right track - Nordea

Eastnine reported NOI of EUR 4.98m for Q4 2020, 4% above our EUR 4.8m estimate, driven by a strong surplus margin. Like-for-like rental growth remained strong at 4% y/y for Q4 (+5% in Q1-Q3), mainly driven by a higher average rent, but growth was constrained by slightly higher vacancies.

Unrealised property value changes were EUR 15m, implying a 4% q/q value uplift, driven by 30 bp q/q yield compression to 5.8% (6.1% in Q3 2020) as a result of reference transactions in the Baltic markets. The initial portfolio yield according to the earnings capacity is now 5.2%.

We also saw a significant increase in the value of Eastnine’s share of Melon Fashion Group, which rose EUR 22.1m, or 39% q/q, due to a lower WACC and an improved sales outlook. EPRA NAV was EUR 14.6 per share (SEK 147 at spot EUR/SEK), 12% above our estimate of EUR 13.1. We increase our SOTP-based fair value range for Eastnine to SEK 130-169 (117-150) per share.
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