Adj. EBITDA SEK 2.0m (ABGSCe 7.8m)
14-9x ’22e-’23e EV/EBITDA (adj.) on pre-Q1 numbers
Q1 outcome
Net sales were SEK 54.4m (0% vs. ABGSCe SEK 54.6m), up 79% of which 27% organic (ABGSCe 30%). The gross profit amounted to SEK 27.4m (-16% vs. ABGSCe 32.7m) at a margin of 50.3% (ABGSCe 60.0%), on rising input costs. Adj. EBITDA was 2.0m (ABGSCe 7.8m), and the margin was 4% (ABGSCe 14%, 0% in Q1’21). This included NRIs of SEK -6.5 (ABGSCe -1.0m), meaning that reported EBIT was -7.6m (ABGSCe 4.0m). The quarter saw solid growth, particularly within what we argue to be the most exciting segment, Circular Energy, which grew 173% organically to SEK 13.9m (ABGSCe 10.2m). Margins were lagging compared to our expectations, and the company says opex is being allocated to grow the organisation.
Estimate changes and outlook The isolated Q1 numbers would imply negative adj. EBITDA revisions of 8% for ’22e-’24e. However, we are reassured by the growth of Circular Energy, as rollout of Evertherm sales is what we argue will be the main driver of earnings growth in the coming years.
Final thoughts and valuation On our pre-Q1 estimates, the share trades at 14x ’22e EV/EBITDA (adj.), which comes down to 9x in ’23e. Looking ahead, while there are several exciting products in the portfolio, the primary focus will be on the company’s ability to grow Evertherm sales (we estimate 26 systems á SEK 2.5m sold in ’22e, company’s production capacity is 50 systems). Läs mer på ABG Sundal Collier
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