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Elanders will present its Q4 report on 3 February. We expect Q4 to be a transitional quarter with muted ~2% group organic growth and a 110 bp y/y margin drop. On the positive side, we argue that Q4 will be a sequential step in the right direction. Entering 2022, we see an acceleration of Automotive-related volumes – together with the acquisition of Bergen Logistics, this should drive y/y EBIT growth of 31% and a 2020-23E EBIT CAGR of 17%. With the recent acquisitions on board, Elanders will not only dilute its Automotive market exposure but also increase its exposure to the fast-growing e-commerce market, from ~20% up to 30% of group sales, leading to a clearly improved organic growth profile. As such, we raise our multiples-based equity value range to SEK 169-223 (121-146). Marketing material commissioned by Elanders.
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