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We lower adjusted EBITA by 2-4% for 2024E-26E ahead of Elanders' Q3 2024 report. We acknowledge the worsening sentiment and several profit warnings, but expect another quarter of flat y/y organic growth, amid easier comps and some improving demand for Electronics. We expect Fashion in the US to remain somewhat depressed. Driven by recent margin-accretive M&A and easier comps, however, we estimate 10% y/y adjusted EBITA growth for Q3, and we expect Q4 2024 to mark the first quarter with clear positive y/y organic growth. With lease-adjusted net debt/EBITDA of 3.2x 2025E, we welcome recent interest rate cuts, which should support longer-term demand. Coupled with the completed and ongoing internal efficiency efforts, we argue that Elanders can better capitalise on the rebounding demand. We thus pencil in 15% y/y adjusted EBITA growth for 2025. Our multiples-based fair value range is trimmed to SEK 75-131 (79-138), implying 2025E EV/EBITA of 10-12x. Marketing material commissioned by Elanders.
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