Sales were SEK 3,371m (+16% vs. ABGSCe 2,904m, +12% vs. FactSet cons. 3,010m). Adj. EBITA was SEK 187m (+33% vs. ABGSCe 141m, +32% vs. cons 142m), for a margin of 5.5% (ABGSCe 4.9%, cons. 4.7%), with no NRIs (we had not expected any). Net profit was SEK 88m (+28% vs. ABGSC 69m, +26% vs. cons. 70m). Supply Chain Solutions significantly outperformed our expectations (EBITA +40% vs. ABGSCe) despite higher input costs and component shortage issues. As expected, Print & Packaging Solutions had a difficult quarter (EBITA +3% vs. ABGSCe), mainly due to high paper prices.
Estimate changes
The future is somewhat uncertain, as Elanders noted a slight slowdown in demand in Europe towards the of the quarter, which the company believes was due to inflation and the war in Ukraine. In North America, however, demand remains strong. Despite the high market uncertainty, we expect positive consensus estimate revisions of 5-6% on ’22e-’24e adj. EBITA following the strong report.
Final thoughts and conf call details
On our pre-Q4 estimates, the share is trading at 12x ’22e EV/EBITA (or 9x lease adj. EV/EBITA), with an expected adj. EBITA CAGR of 13% for ’21-’24e. Finally, the company will host a conference call at 08:30 CET, dial-in SE: +46856642754, UK: +443301653641, pin: 351623. The presentation will be made available on the company’s IR page.
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