We lower our EBITA estimates by 7-1% for ’21e-‘23e, primarily on lower margin assumptions. The problems relating to supply chains and semiconductors should continue into H2, and primarily in Q3. We have also reduced financing costs to reflect the new terms, increasing EPS. We increase sales by 2-4% in ’21e-‘23e, primarily on increased healthcare volumes (+2% for ‘22e), a renewed and increased contract in Print & Packaging (+1%), the acquisition of Schätzl (+1%) and FX (+1%), offsetting volume losses in subscription boxes (-2%).
Trading 39% below its peer group, offering 7% lease adj. FCF
Elanders trades at 11x ‘22e EV/EBITA, ~39% below our peer group, while offering a 13% EBIT CAGR for ’20-’23e (2pp above peers) and a >7% lease adj. FCF yield. Management reiterates that it intends to accelerate its M&A agenda, which the ‘22e 0.5x lease adj. ND/EBITDA supports. We expect that Elanders could add c. 34% to EBITA in 2022e through M&A, without breaching its target of maintaining ND/EBITDA below 2.5x.
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