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Elanders: Q3 miss but outlook a positive surprise - ABG

Q3 adj. EBITA SEK 126m (-20% vs. FactSet cons.)
’21e EBITA down 2%, ’22e EBITA up 2%
10x ’22e EV/EBITA, 8-10% ’21e-’23e lease-adj. FCFY

Elanders reported Q3 sales of SEK 2,865m (+4% vs. ABGSCe, +1% vs. FactSet cons.) and adj. EBITA of SEK 126m (-12% vs. ABGSCe, -20% vs. cons.), for a margin of 4.4% (ABGSCe 5.2%, cons. 5.6%). The lower margin was primarily due to customers’ production disruptions and rising component prices, mainly affecting the automotive, electronics and industrial customer segments. The main problem, according to the company, was the customers’ irregular demand patterns, which shifted at short notice, meaning Elanders had difficulties adjusting capacity to the demand fluctuations. However, we were positively surprised by the fact that Elanders says it has seen a gradual improvement in these issues in September compared to July and August and that it expects further stabilisation in Q4. We see this as positive since we had assumed these problems would start subsiding around mid-2022.

On our estimates, the share is trading at 10x ’22e EV/EBITA, offering 8-10% lease-adjusted FCF yields for ’21e-’23e. The current valuation is 41% below our segment-weighted peer group while Elanders is expected to deliver ’20-’23e sales and EBITA CAGRs of 5% and 13%, respectively (peers expected to have 6% and 12%, respectively). In conclusion, while Q3 was a weaker quarter, we see it as positive that the company is already seeing improvements in the supply chain disturbances affecting its customers.
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